TREB’s September GTA Data.

Every month TREB (the Toronto Real Estate Board) issues their report on pricing and sales from the previous month.

We try to interpret for our clients trends that seem to be developing and what it might mean to them if they are buying or selling. We zero in particularly on TREB areas C08 and E01 – Toronto’s Lower East Side – the neighbourhoods of St. Lawrence Market, The Distillery, Corktown, Regent Park, Cabbagetown, Riverside and Riverdale.

The story overall continues to be the squeezing of the market. September 2019 saw a big (7,825 sales, +22%) increase in the number of sales over September 2018. At the same time we are seeing new listings down 1.9% YoY to 15,611. This decreasing supply can only lead to upwards price pressure if it keeps up, especially in more desirable or affordable neighbourhoods.

The trend of sales from pent up demand for detached homes that we noted last month has really taken off, with sales volume up a “check-if-that’s-a-typo” 26.1% over last year in the 905 and 37.9% in the 416. Sale prices are also creeping up a bit, 4.5% and 1.2% respectively.

TREB Areas C08/E01 – Toronto’s ‘Lower East Side’

E01 is hot. Smokin’ hot. On average, selling prices are 11% over asking and Days on Market is only 11. For semis, it’s even hotter at 118% SP/LP and only 7 days on market on average. Buyers need to have a plan, be quick and be decisive.

This data is consistent with our thinking that E01 will continue to be in demand as a great neighbourhood, given its proximity and quick commute to the CBD and its relative affordability (in 416 terms). These sell signals mean that a quick listing/sale before the spring market starts and everyone decides to list may be a good idea. When all the listers sitting on the sidelines waiting for the price to jump finally all go in, the glut will actually work against big price rises.

In C08, we have condos selling for pretty much asking, 

So what are the takeaways? I’d say:

1. I think the supply squeeze is going to continue to push prices up, and at some point there will be a flood of new listings trying to take advantage of that. Not getting caught in that flood as a lister is key.
2. The pent-up demand out there for detached homes especially in the 905 is staying strong as sellers have accepted the reality that we aren’t in 2017 prices any more.
3. GTA new condos are expensive at >$1100/sq ft, but not in global terms. As long as Canada/GTA continues to be the draw that it is for a global, young, talented workforce, we don’t see that changing. But right now prices don’t help positive or even neutral cash-flows from investment properties, so until that market settles down, investing in pre-owned condos may be a better bet. Money is still cheap, with no upward pressures being signalled from Bank of Canada. That will keep the price pressures up. And will likely also make people wait a bit to list, keeping inventory low.

Come and have a coffee with me if you want to talk more about what this means for you as a buyer or seller.

Ivan Kalinin is a sales agent at Key Toronto Real Estate Group. Zoocasa Realty Inc., Brokerage.
He can be reached at 416 858 8085. Not intended to solicit clients already under contract.