TREB’s November GTA Data.

About the 4th or 5th of every month TREB (the Toronto Real Estate Board) publishes detailed pricing and sales data from the previous month.

We sift through this data and try to interpret for our clients trends that may be developing and what it might mean to them if they are buying or selling. We zero in particularly on TREB areas C08 and E01 – Toronto’s Lower East Side – the neighbourhoods of St. Lawrence Market, The Distillery, Corktown, Regent Park, Cabbagetown, Riverside and Riverdale.

This month showed 7,090 residential sales – 14.% higher than last November, which is pretty good when you recall we lost almost a week of good showing weather with that early winter storm on November 11th. As we started to see the past few months, demand continues to be strong as employment and immigration continue to drive people into the GTA. Unfortunately, we are continuing to see new listings down – after -9.4% last month another -17.9% this month. This growing imbalance between supply and demand continues to put upwards price pressure as prices were up 7.1% over last year – the strongest growth of 2019. In November. Process that!

In a bit of a reverse of recent months, condos saw the largest price gain (10.9%/12.2% in 416/905 respectively) with sales being flat-ish, while the things that were moving were 416 semis (+19.3%) and 905 singles (+27.8%) with prices going up substantially less.

TREB Areas C08/E01 – Toronto’s ‘Lower East Side’

E01 is still hot. Selling prices are still 111% of asking and Days on Market (DoM) is only 11 – the lowest DoM in the 416. If you see something you like in E01, don’t sleep on it. Make an offer yesterday. For semis in November, it was even hotter at 115% SP/LP and only 9 days on market on average. Buyers need to have a plan, be quick and be decisive.

In C08, condos are averaging $747K, and selling at about list price after 22 DoM, so there are no great deals to be had. It’s a mature, well understood market at the colder, snowier end of the year. 

We see this data supporting our opinion of E01 continuing to be in demand as a great neighbourhood, given its proximity and quick commute to the CBD and its relative affordability (in 416 terms). If prices continue to rise like this, we will definitely see people jumping in to list in what they feel is a seller’s market. Probably a whole bunch of them, and the mini glut will cancel that advantage. If you are thinking of selling in the spring in E01, see if you can move it up ahead of the pack to maximize sale price.

So what are the KEY takeaways? I’d say:

1. There are a whopping 27.2% fewer listings out there than at this time last year. As this supply squeeze continues, it will create warped markets in certain parts of the city. It will push prices up at least until the spring market in April, and at some point that trickle of new listings trying to take advantage of that will turn into a flood.. If you’re thinking of trading up from your condo in April/May, let’s talk now about strategy and location.
2. If you’re selling, don’t get caught in the above flood – let’s talk about the right way to profit off it now.
3. Money is still cheap, and the recent BoC rates stayed steady – that will keep the price pressures up, especially at the lower end of the market (condos in the CBD). And will likely also make downsizers wait a bit to list, keeping inventory low. It’s a vicious circle.

If you like talking real estate half as much as I do, come and I’ll buy you a coffee. Let’s chat about what all this might mean for you as a buyer or seller. And don’t forget that if you are looking for a property as an investment, we have just a few private tours left in 2019. Click here to book.

Ivan Kalinin is a sales agent at Key Toronto Real Estate Group. Zoocasa Realty Inc., Brokerage.
He can be reached at 416 858 8085. Not intended to solicit clients already under contract.