TREB’s June Numbers.

Toronto, Jul. 31, 2019
By Ivan Kalinin

Every month we take a look at what the Toronto Real Estate Board reports on pricing and sales, try to interpret for our clients what it means to them and zero in particularly on Toronto’s Lower East Side – the neighbourhoods of St. Lawrence Market, The Distillery, Corktown, Regent Park, Cabbagetown, Riverside and Riverdale.

June 2019’s numbers show overall GTA sales up 10.4% over last year but down 11.1% vs last month, which admittedly was a pretty blistering May, coming on the heels of a cold, wet spring that left many waiting on the sidelines. GTA prices are up 3.1% over last year driven entirely by higher density housing (semis/condos/towns) but condo prices seem to be slowing their torrid pace of the last 5 or 6 quarters. Detached volume is up double digits, with an over 20% increase in the 905 even as prices decline slightly.

The real story this spring is fewer listings and the diminishing supply that creates as volumes rise. Those who are in the market looking are seeing . New listings are again down in the GTA by 0.4% from the month before with this volume increase. This means two things:
(1) it’s going to be harder to find “the perfect house” and
(2) Good properties in desirable neighbourhoods will sell quickly and for higher prices. This is, in fact, what we’re seeing.


TREB Areas C08/E01 – Toronto’s ‘Lower East Side’

Sale prices were on average over asking prices in our LES (101% and 111% respectively) with Days on Market lower (17 and 10) than the GTA average of 22. That continues to tell us that the LES is in demand as a great neighbourhood. In fact, at this pace E08 has less than a month of inventory on hand – a great signal if you’re wondering if now is a good time to list your home. 

So what’s the takeaway? I’d say:

  1. It’s still a good seller’s market for higher density housing (condos/semis/towns), and a great time to lock into your capital gains, especially if you’ve owned for a few years.
  2. There still exist pockets that are selling below asking, but finding them is trickier than even a few months ago.
  3. The GTA continues to grow (Ryerson just reported that GTA added over 125,000 ppl between July 2017 and July 2018!!) and despite recent housing supply initiatives announced by the Provincial Gov’t, demand is only going up for a place to live in Toronto. Less building and fewer listings means an inevitable upward trend in pricing. 
  4. The central bank seems likely to keep rates low, so despite the 2017/2018 stress test introductions, demand at the lower end of the market will likely not be dampened fiscally in the near future. THat will keep the pressure on lower priced properties. 
  5. GTA new condos are still, in global terms, a sound place to park money for gains in the medium/long term, especially if you can afford downtown units.

Ivan Kalinin is a sales agent at Key Toronto Real Estate Group. Zoocasa Realty Inc., Brokerage. He can be reached at 416 858 8085. Not intended to solicit clients already under contract.