TRREB’s January GTA Data.

TORONTO REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT – 3 REASONS WHY THE PRICES WILL INCREASE THIS YEAR

Toronto Real Estate Board has published their analysis for the year and indicated 3 reasons why the prices are going to rise in 2022. They are also predicting that there will be less sales taking place when compared to 2021. In this article, I would like to take a look at how the market performed in January, and present the factors that will have influence on both, price increases and lower sales volumes this year.

Toronto real estate listings are down to their lowest levels in more than 20 years in January

Listings dropped 15.5% since last year (only 4,140 active listings), while the average home price in the GTA increased to $1,242,793, up 28.6% year over year. From December to January we have seen a significant increase in prices month-over-month:

• Detached +10%
• Semi +9%
• Condo +11%
• Townhouse +11%

Toronto Real Estate Board Predicts Strong Price Growth, But The Sales Will Not Beat Last Year’s Records

According to TREB prices will rise 12% year over year and here are the factors that drive the prices up in 2022:

1. The law of supply and demand is still at play and the sheer lack of inventory alone plays the main role in increase in prices.
2. The immigration that is about to resume is only going to increase demand. According to Kevin Crigger, the TRREB President: ‘Immigration into Canada and the GTA is expected to be at or near record levels in 2022. All of these people will require a place to live.’
3. Labour market recovery: the TRREB is looking positively and the renewed job creation and an overall economical growth in the province. People with secure jobs will be more confident in their decisions of buying and selling real estate.

Factors Will Continue Driving the Sales Volumes Lower This Year

1. According to TREEB’s Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer: ‘higher borrowing costs in 2022 will see some households on the margin of affordability temporarily put their purchase on hold.’
2. Low inventory will continue to put constraints on the market: a lack of options will force some buyers to wait until there are more options on the market.
3. Normalization in per-capita home sales: many households were able to save money during the pandemic and the lockdowns. As the province is moving towards normalcy, people will have more opportunities to spend money and thus save less for a house.
4. Higher interest rates: generally speaking, higher borrowing costs drive buyers away from the market and lead to fewer home sales.